Predictions


Bookies  |  Pollsters

Bookies

Betting markets are in the business of determining the most likely outcome at the point the matter is actually to be determined, reflecting an option as it shifts over time.  So, with that in mind, its interesting to see how Britain’s bookies betting odds fluctuate over the course of the run up to the EU Referendum.

According to Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, bookmakers and betting markets have consistently been more accurate on major political events over the past 15 years – from US presidential contests to the Scottish independence referendum and March’s Israeli election.

The following odds are updated manually daily, best bets shown in bold:

 RemainProbability LeaveProbability Website 
Bet365See bookmakerSee bookmakerwww.Bet365.com
888SportSee bookmakerSee bookmakerwww.888Sport.com
LadbrokesSee bookmakerSee bookmakerwww.ladbrokes.com
BetFairSee bookmakerSee bookmakerwww.betfair.co.uk

Last updated: 23rd June 2016 19:05

Bookies  |  Pollsters

Pollsters

As “polling organisations” from the market research community frequently like to remind us, “A poll is a snapshot, not a prediction”.

‘Scientifically produced’ polls and surveys capture a respondents feelings at that specific moment in time and then report them.  However (until some recent exceptions) they have been extremely accurate at predicting outcomes and reflecting trends in opinion.  So with that in mind we thought it useful to present a trend-line of poll results, which we’ll add new polls to as the run-up to the referendum progresses.

Market Research Polls